"The Buildup To War In Ukraine - February 15 2022."
February 15, 2023
After the 2014 coup in Kiev the dully elected President Yanukovich had fled the country. His supporters in parliament were afraid and would no show up for further assemblies. The incoming U.S. selected government immediately set out to suppress the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine. The first move of the rump parliament, now dominated by right-wing people from west Ukraine, was to prohibit the Russian language for official business.
The ethnic Russian population in the east and southeast was opposed to the coup and rebelled against it. The new government tried to oppress it by military means. But a lot of soldiers defected to the rebels and soon those won the upper hand. The Ukrainian government troops were decisively defeated, twice. Each time the French, German, Russian and Ukrainian governments set down to come to agreements on how to proceed:
The first, known as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic(DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). This agreement followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the region and aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire.
The agreement failed to stop fighting, and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government. While fighting subsided following the agreement's signing, it never ended completely, and the agreement's provisions were never fully implemented.
The Minsk II agreement, a "Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements", was endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2205. It is available here. The package includes clearly numbered tasks. An immediate ceasefire is task 1. The 'Launch of a dialogue' about legislation measures the Ukrainian parliament would have to take to recognize a special status for Donbas is step 4. Step 9 is the reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government.
These clearly defined steps later proved to be the reason why the agreement was never fully implemented. The government of Ukraine insisted that step 9 should be taken before step 4. The governments of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics insisted on the original sequencing as giving up any control over the [border] with Russia, and the supplies coming through it, would have taken away their ability to defend themselves before the other steps, specifically the recognition of the special status of the Donbas republics, had been taken.
Over the years several summits were held to push for a fulfillment of the Minsk agreements. But the government of Ukraine, with 'western' support, continued to block the process.
On Tuesday, February 15 2022, following talks with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, President Vladimir Putin ordered some troops who had been stationed near the border with Ukraine to move back to their barracks.
France 24 listed other headlines of the day:
- Blinken speaks to FRANCE 24: The Ukrainian crisis has 'reinforced transatlantic solidarity'
- NATO chief says 'cautious optimism' over Ukraine crisis
- Ukraine crisis: Blinken says risk of Russian invasion high
- Should I stay or should I go? Ukrainians remain resolute despite a war of nerves
- Scholz welcomes Russian withdrawal of some troops from near Ukraine
- Putin, Scholz begin talks in Moscow over Ukraine security
- Russia says some troops return to base, Ukraine reacts cautiously
- Markets calmer after Zelensky's invasion joke spooks investors
France 24, and many other 'western' media, missed something important that was happening in Russia:
Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said.
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The idea of asking Putin to recognise the breakaway territories was first floated by lawmakers on Jan. 19 but has taken weeks to get onto parliament's agenda, with the Kremlin declining to comment on whether it likes the idea.
In late January 2022 the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) had analyzed the idea:
On January 19, 11 members of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, registered a draft law to recognize the independence of two separatist statelets in eastern Ukraine that have been warring with Kyiv since 2014 with substantial but undeclared support from Moscow. The document, which was put forward by members of the Communist Party, comes amid rising tensions along Ukraine’s border and in occupied Crimea, as Russia continues its buildup of military forces while demanding that the collective West agree to proposals to reshape the European security order to its liking.This is not the first time that Russian parliamentarians have sought to provide official recognition to the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (abbreviated as the DPR and LPR, respectively). In 2014, deputies from the party launched an abortive campaign to collect signatures in support of recognizing the territories’ independence, which would have been delivered to President Putin for consideration. Meanwhile, the Just Russia party called for recognizing the statelets’ independence that same year and has included it in subsequent party platforms.
This was not the idea of the major government supporting [the] United Russia party, but of the [parliamentary] opposition. Putin had rejected the 2014 attempt towards independence as he did want to keep the Donbas republics within Ukraine.
CSIS writes that an eventual recognition of the independence of Donbas was seen by its supporters as a step that might help to avoid a war:
The approach suggested by the Communists offers certain advantages to Russia. First, with negotiations on Russia’s security demands stalled, extending official recognition to the LPR and DPR could give Putin a relatively simple way to shift the status quo in Russia’s favor without (necessarily) involving the 127,000-strong Russian forces currently encircling Ukraine.The chairman of the State Duma’s committee dealing with relations in neighboring states has already indicated that recognizing the statelets’ independence could be part of Russia’s “plan B” in case talks fail. If Russia would want to allow more time for negotiations to play out, while also escalating pressure to compel the West to accept at least some of its core positions, then recognition of the statelets could be considered in the Kremlin as an appropriate next step.Should Ukraine and the West make substantial concessions at that stage, then Putin would be able to proclaim a victory in the current standoff and draw down his forces rather than risk a spiraling escalation with unpredictable outcomes.
During its February 15 session the Duma adopted the resolution:
Russia's lower house of parliament voted on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and the European Union told Moscow not to follow through.The move by the State Duma, if approved, could further inflame a wider standoff over a Russian military build-up near Ukraine that has fuelled Western fears that Moscow could attack. Russia denies any invasion plans and has accused the West of hysteria.
Recognition of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics could kill the Minsk peace process in eastern Ukraine, where a conflict in the region known as Donbass between government forces and Moscow-backed separatists has cost 15,000 lives.
"Kyiv is not observing the Minsk agreements. Our citizens and compatriots who live in Donbass need our help and support," Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, wrote on social media.
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At a news conference in Moscow, Putin declined to be drawn out on how he plans to respond. He said Russians were sympathetic to the residents of the Donbass region, but he wanted the regions' problems to be resolved through the Minsk accords.
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Four-way peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany were held last week but ended without a breakthrough.After the talks, Ukraine said it would not yield to pressure from Moscow to negotiate directly with the separatists, while Russia accused Kyiv of putting forward absurd proposals.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported [on] February 15 that the number of ceasefire violations continued to be below average. The number of explosions, i.e. artillery impacts, was higher than average but mostly limited to one area where they hit on both sides of the ceasefire line:
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 24 ceasefire violations, including five explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 17 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 129 ceasefire violations, including 71 explosions.
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The majority of ceasefire violations occurred in areas close to the disengagement area near Zolote (government-controlled, 60km west of Luhansk) (see below). In the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded 157 ceasefire violations in the region, some of which also occurred near the disengagement area near Zolote.
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During the reporting period, the SMM camera in Zolote recorded four projectiles in flight, while Mission patrols heard 61 undetermined explosions and 37 bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire, assessed as outside the disengagement area near Zolote but within 5km of its periphery.
Posted by b on February 15, 2023 at 14:45 UTC | Permalink